Masters odds, picks and best bets

Publish date: 2024-08-10

The PGA Tour schedule so far this season has been ruled by long shots. Take away Scottie Scheffler’s two victories in 2024, and the tournament winners have mainly come out of nowhere.

That trend is unlikely to continue this week at the Masters, where surprise winners are rare. Yes, you’ll occasionally see triumphant golfers such as 60-to-1 long shot Danny Willett in 2016 or 40-to-1 Hideki Matsuyama in 2021, but most Masters champions follow the same criteria: They have good history at Augusta National, good form entering the tournament and good standing in certain key metrics.

While it’s hard to judge the form of the 13 LIV golfers in the field because they play less often and in less-challenging fields, we have a pretty good sense of what a Masters winner should look like:

He’s good at Augusta National: According to Datagolf, course history is far more predictive at Augusta National than at any other course in the PGA Tour rotation. Nine of the past 14 winners (and 13 of the past 18) had a previous green jacket or a top-10 Masters finish.

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He’s not a Masters rookie or an amateur: Only three players have won the Masters in their first appearance at the tournament, the last being Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. I won’t be considering the following Augusta National first-timers: Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, Eric Cole, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Ryo Hisatsune, Lee Hodges, Nicolai Hojgaard, Jake Knapp, Peter Malnati, Denny McCarthy, Grayson Murray, Matthieu Pavon, Adam Schenk and Stephan Jaeger. Plus, no amateur has won the Masters, and there are five in this year’s field: Santiago de la Fuente, Stewart Hagestad, Christo Lamprecht, Neal Shipley and Jasper Stubbs. In terms of picks to win, you can ignore them.

He’s highly ranked: Of the past 24 Masters winners, 17 entered the tournament in the top 12 of the Official World Golf Ranking, and 22 were in the top 30. But because the OWGR does not award ranking points to LIV golfers, who have plummeted down the rankings board, this trend has become a bit dicey. LIV’s Brooks Koepka had at least a share of the lead for the first three rounds at last year’s Masters before he fell apart on Sunday.

He’s in good form: Of the past 13 Masters champions, only Matsuyama in 2021 did not have at least two top-12 stroke-play finishes in the calendar year of the tournament, either on the PGA Tour or the European Tour. These golfers haven’t exactly been tearing it up this year (or are well past their primes), and they’re off my list: Fred Couples, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Fox, Lucas Glover, Sungjae Im, Zach Johnson, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Min Woo Lee, Luke List, Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa, José María Olazábal, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel, Vijay Singh, Sepp Straka, Camilo Villegas, Bubba Watson, Mike Weir, Willett, Gary Woodland and Tiger Woods.

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He’s good on par-4s: Of the past 11 Masters champions, nine ranked first, second or third in the field in par-4 scoring during the tournament. Nine of the past 12 winners also entered the tournament ranked 11th or better in the PGA Tour’s par-4 birdie-or-better statistic. Rory McIlroy, for instance, ranks 70th in par-4 scoring and 72nd in par-4 birdie-or-better this season, and I won’t be betting him to end his Masters jinx this week. Other golfers who aren’t attacking par-4s this season include Cam Davis and Will Zalatoris (though the latter is tempting because of his strong Augusta National history).

He’s not the defending champion: Only three players since 1960 have won back-to-back Masters — Jack Nicklaus in 1965-66, Nick Faldo in 1989-90 and Tiger Woods in 2001-02. Since 2002, only Woods (2006) and Jordan Spieth (2016) have finished in the top five as the defending champion. Three of the past seven defending champions have missed the cut, and none of those seven finished better than Scheffler’s 10th last year. That means I won’t be betting Jon Rahm, last year’s winner, to repeat.

He didn’t win the week before: The last player to win the tournament immediately preceding the Masters and then win the green jacket was Phil Mickelson in 2006. Since then, only two golfers (Anthony Kim in 2010 and Spieth in 2021) have won the week before and then finished in the top 10 at Augusta. Akshay Bhatia, who just won the Texas Open, will not be on my card.

Now that we’ve eliminated 49 golfers from the field of 89, let’s take a look at a few who can actually win. Odds are as of Thursday morning at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Scottie Scheffler (+400)

Betting Scheffler at any tournament these days means accepting preposterously low odds, and the Masters is no different. The champion from two years ago and the OWGR No. 1 is again the favorite, for ample reasons. Scheffler has won two of his past three tournaments and was a missed six-footer away from forcing a playoff at the Houston Open two weekends ago. His worst finish this calendar year was a tie for 17th at the American Express; he has been in the top 10 in his seven other tournaments. The knock on Scheffler has always been his putting, but he has gained strokes on the greens in five of his past six tournaments after an equipment change. He’s first on the PGA Tour in par-4 scoring and par-4 birdie-or-better. What’s not to like here, other than the low odds?

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Schauffele is probably the best player without a major championship (though he does have an Olympic gold medal), and you have to think he’s about due: The world’s fifth-ranked player has far more top-10s (11) than missed cuts (three) in his 26 major appearances. Three of those top-10s came at Augusta National. Schauffele, who has finished T-5 or better in three of his past four tournaments, trails only Scheffler in par-4 scoring this season and is tied for 17th in par-4 birdie-or-better. And how about this from Kyle Porter of CBS Sports? Nine of the past 11 Masters winners had gained at least 1.7 strokes tee to green per round in the three months leading into the tournament. Only two PGA Tour golfers fit that bill this year: Scheffler and Schauffele.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)

Matsuyama already has a green jacket as the 2021 champion. He also has some blinding form, with a win in February at Riviera (a good course comparison to Augusta National), followed by a tie for 12th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a tie for sixth at the Players Championship (two tournaments with elite fields), plus a tie for seventh last weekend in Texas. Matsuyama is one of three golfers in the field to finish at least in the top 25 in each of the past four Masters — Scheffler and Shane Lowry are the others — and he can’t be overlooked.

Joaquín Niemann (+3000)

I think Niemann has one of the better shots out of all the LIV golfers because he comes in with white-hot form: three wins and four top-fives since November, with one of those victories in a full-field DP World Tour event. (LIV golfers can play on the European tour.) He’s also one of only two LIV golfers to average at least two strokes gained per round this season. (Rahm is the other; Dustin Johnson — No. 3 on that list — is well behind both at 1.54 strokes gained per round.) Niemann’s best finish at Augusta National is a tie for 16th last year, but he has made the cut each of the past three years.

Tony Finau (+4000)

Every year, it seems, golf fans get talked into considering Finau at the Masters, and every year he seems to do just okay: He has never missed the cut in six Augusta National appearances, with three top-10s. This year, the world’s 26th-ranked player has missed just one cut in PGA Tour play and tied for second at the Houston Open, his most recent event. Finau can be a little wild off the tee, but that shortcoming is negated a bit at Augusta National because the rough isn’t very penal, and Finau shines at courses with short rough.

Shane Lowry (+5500)

The 2019 British Open champion has been picking up steam as the season has worn on, with a tie for fourth at the Cognizant and a solo third the next week at the Arnold Palmer. Lowry has finished no worse than a tie for 25th in his past four Augusta National appearances and tied for third two years ago. He’s top-20 in par-4 scoring and par-4 birdie-or-better this season.

Sahith Theegala (+4000)

The 26-year-old has played in only one Masters, but it was a ninth-place finish at last year’s tournament. This year, the world No. 15 has four top-10 finishes, with three of them coming over his past five events. Theegala is a respectable 24th in par-4 scoring and 31st in par-4 birdie-or-better.

Cameron Young (+5000)

Young is coming off a tie for seventh at last year’s Masters, has four top-10s this year and is respectable enough on par-4s (12th in par-4 birdie or better, 31st in par-4 scoring). And while Young has yet to win on the PGA Tour, he has four top-10s in major tournaments, including a tie for eighth at last year’s British Open. A win is coming, and it could be at Augusta National.

Jason Day (+6000)

The Aussie, ranked 21st, has the 2015 PGA Championship title on his résumé, and he has finished in second place in each of the other three majors, most recently at last year’s British Open. Day’s recent Masters form has been spotty (two missed cuts and a tie for 39th in his past three visits), but he has four Augusta National top-10s in his career. This season, Day has posted three top-10s and ranks in the top 10 in par-4 scoring and par-4 birdie-or-better.

The betting favorites

As of Thursday morning, here were the odds to win the Masters of the leading contenders, according to DraftKings Sportsbook:

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